Urban Modelling: Development of multi-sectorial simulation lab and science-based decision support framework to address urban environment issues

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Urban Modelling: Development of multi-sectorial simulation lab and science-based decision support framework to address urban environment issues

India reported to have more urban population in the coming years and it is projected to double its size by 2050. Due to this rapid urban expansion in Indian cities is giving rise to environmental issues such as extreme rainfall, heat waves, pollution, and urban floods. In recent years Indian cities are experiencing more frequent occurrences of extreme events of floods, heat/cold waves, and severe pollution events. Due to these events, the health and socio-economic issues of the urban population are growing concerns to policymakers and citizens at national, state and local level. Thus, it is imperative to understand, simulate and timely predict urban extreme episodes to take more informative operational and policy decision to overcome the urban problems. It is worthy to note that all these events consist of cross-sectoral physical system which requires an integrated modeling system to predict these issues. To develop the integrated platform, the modeling system should include high-performance computing (HPC) resources, input data, observations, satellite data, validation and verification mechanisms, multi-model interoperability, multi-scale ensemble modeling, and 2D/3D visualization. Implementing this system will require high-resolution models with robust data handling and computational capabilities. The comprehensive modeling ecosystem will encompass ensemble modeling, urban parameterization, urban canopy, urban heat island, boundary layer, atmospheric, chemical, and morphological data assimilation, and a query framework utilizing high-performance computing (HPC) and big data analytic technology. Against this backdrop, the NSM Urban Modelling consortia project (funded by MeitY) is formulated for timely prediction of weather, air quality, and hydrological systems.

Under NSM Urban Modelling project, an integrated urban modelling system and service cyberinfrastructure Urban Environment Science to Society (UES2S) (Figure 1) is developed. This is an online fully coupled urban ‘meteorology and hydrology, and air quality’ modeling system (Figure 2) which captures the urban representation of micro scale city environmental conditions.

Project Objectives

The objective of this consortia project is to develop an online fully coupled urban ‘meteorology, hydrology, and air quality’ modeling system to capture the urban representation of micro-scale city environmental conditions. The aim is to improve the skill of urban weather forecasting, atmospheric dispersion and air quality forecasting, and hydrology forecasting useful for exposure assessment, disaster management, daily operations, and policy decisions and create a science-based, HPC-enabled urban data and decision framework with optimized performance and 3D visualization techniques, thereby fulfilling India’s sustainable smart city goals.


Figure 1: Homepage of Urban Environment Science to Society (UES2S)




Figure 2: HPC Based Integrated Urban Modelling System



Consortia Partners:

Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), Pune

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune

Indian Institute of Sciences (IISc), Bengaluru

Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneshwar (IIT BBS)




Collaborators:
  • Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI), Pune
  • National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)
  • India Meteorological Department (IMD)
  • Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC)
End Users:
  • India Meteorological Department (IMD)
  • Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC), Disaster Management Department
  • Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) Environment Department
  • Pimpri Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC)
  • Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC)
  • Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB)
  • Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB)
  • Scientists / Researchers
  • Research students at Post Graduate and Ph.D. level
Milestones:
  • Calibrated and customized model for Indian cities
  • Prepared high resolution LULC map for pilot cities
  • Integrated Met-Hydro-AQ user friendly web-based Model Execution framework (WRF, WRF-Chem, AERMOD, HEC-RAS, HEC-HMS, SWMM), Data hub and Decision Support System
  • End-to-End automated model forecast validation tool
  • Indigenously developed visualization platform
  • Provided access of developed system to IMD
  • Shared ward level Rainfall, Reservoir Water and urban flood, heatwave, air pollution forecast information with IMD, PMC, PCMC and WRD (Figure 3)
  • Demonstration of UES2S to Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary, MoES, Chairman, PMC and domain experts (Figure 4)
  • 36 Publications in peer-reviewed journals & 13 Conference papers
  • MoU signed on 30th October 2024 with Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporations to share urban Decision Support System weather, flood information, and air quality (jointly with IITM Pune) at ward level
  • Data sharing: Providing weather and flood forecast to IMD, Pune Municipal Corporation, Pimpri Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC) and water resources departments, govt of Maharashtra




Figure 3: Typical Daily Rainfall info upto Ward level




Figure 4: Air quality forecast information




Figure 5: Project review by Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary, MoES, Chairman, PMC and domain experts



MoUs:
  • MoU signed with Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC) to share the access and use of Urban Decision Support System

Figure 6: MOU Signed between C-DAC and PCMC on 30 October 2024
(R to L) Dr Sanjay Wandhekar Centre Head, C-DAC Pune, Mr Shekhar Singh (IAS) Commissioner, PCMC, PCMC officials



Achievements:
Publications
Peer reviewed journal papers:
  1. Kaginalkar A. et al., Integrated urban environmental system of systems for weather ready cities in India, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (2021),https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0279.1

  2. Islam, S., Karipot, A., Bhawar, R., Sinha, P., Kedia, S. and Khare, M., 2024. Urban heat island effect in India: a review of current status, impact and mitigation strategies. Discover Cities, 1(1), pp.1-28.

  3. Kulkarni Santosh H., S. D. Ghude, C. Jena, R. K. Karumuri, B. Sinha, V. Sinha, R. Kumar, V. K. Soni, and M. Khare: How Much Does Large-Scale Crop Residue Burning Affect the Air Quality in Delhi?, Environmental Science & Technology, 54 (8), 4790-4799 (2020)

  4. Sumita Kedia, Sudheer Bhakare, Arun Dwivedi, Sahidul Islam, Akshara Kaginalkar: Estimates of change in surface meteorology and urban heat island over northwest India: Impact of urbanization, Urban Climate, Volume 36, (2021)

  5. Gaikwad S., et al 2024: Harnessing deep learning for forecasting fire-burning locations and unveiling PM2.5 emissions, Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 10, February 2024, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01831-1, 927-941

  6. Govardhan G., et al (2024), Decision Support System version 1.0 (DSS v1.0) for air quality management in Delhi, India, Geoscientific Model Development, 17, April 2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2617-2024, 2617–2640

  7. Karrevula, N.R., Nadimpalli, R., Sinha, P., Mohanty, S., Boyaj, A., Swain, M. and Mohanty, U.C., 2024. Performance Evaluation of WRF Model in Simulating Extreme Rainfall Events Over Bhubaneswar Urban Region of East Coast of India. Pure and Applied Geophysics, pp.1-27.

  8. Karrevula, N.R., Boyaj, A., Sinha, P., Nadimpalli, R., Mohanty, U.C., Islam, S., Kaginalkar, A. and Vinoj, V., 2024. Role of planetary boundary layer physics in urban-scale WRF model for predicting the heat waves over tropical city Bhubaneswar. Journal of Earth System Science, 133(3), pp.1-26.

  9. Boyaj, A., Karrevula, N.R., Sinha, P., Patel, P., Mohanty, U.C. and Niyogi, D., 2024. Impact of increasing urbanization on heatwaves in Indian cities. International Journal of Climatology, 44(11), pp.4089-4114.

  10. Boyaj, A., Sinha, P., Mohanty, U.C., Vinoj, V., Ashok, K., Islam, S., Kaginalkar, A. and Khare, M., 2024. Projected frequency of low to high-intensity rainfall events over India using bias-corrected CORDEX models. Atmospheric Research, p.107760.

  11. Boyaj, A., Nadimpalli, R., Reddy, D., Sinha, P., Karrevula, N.R., Osuri, K.K., Srivastava, A., Swain, M., Mohanty, U.C., Islam, S. and Kaginalkar, A., 2023. Role of radiation and canopy model in predicting heat waves using WRF over the city of Bhubaneswar, Odisha. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 135(6), p.60.

  12. Mohanty, S., Swain, M., Nadimpalli, R., Osuri, K.K., Mohanty, U.C., Patel, P. and Niyogi, D., 2023. Meteorological conditions of extreme heavy rains over coastal city Mumbai. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 62(2), pp.191-208.

  13. Swain, M., Nadimpalli, R.R., Mohanty, U.C., Guhathakurta, P., Gupta, A., Kaginalkar, A., Chen, F. and Niyogi, D., 2023. Delay in timing and spatial reorganization of rainfall due to urbanization-analysis over India’s smart city Bhubaneswar. Computational Urban Science, 3(1), p.8.

  14. Gunwani P., et. al.: “Sensitivity of WRF/Chem to different Meteorological Initial Conditions and PBL parameterization schemes”, Atmospheric Environment (2023).

  15. Madhusmita Swain, et al., 2023: Delay in timing and spatial reorganization of rainfall due to urbanization- analysis over India’s smart city Bhubaneswar. Comput. Urban Sci. 3, 8.

  16. Shyama Mohanty, Madhusmita Swain, Raghu Nadimpalli, K. K. Osuri, U. C. Mohanty, Pratiman Patel, and Dev Niyogi, 2023: Meteorological Conditions of Extreme Heavy Rains over Coastal City Mumbai. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2023,Vol.62-2, 191–208

  17. V. K. Valappil, Sumita Kedia, A. K Dwivedi, S. S Pokale, Sahidul Islam, Manoj K Khare, Assessing the performance of WRF ARW model in simulating heavy rainfall events over the Pune region: in support of operational applications, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2023.

  18. Madhusmita Swain, R. Nadimpalli, U C Mohanty, P Guhathakurta, A Gupta, A Kaginalkar, F Chen, and D Niyogi. Delay in timing and spatial reorganization of rainfall due to urbanization- Analysis for pre-monsoon conditions in Bhubaneswar, India. Computational Urban Science vol 3, Article number: 8 (2023)

  19. Gayatry Kalita, et. al.: “ Forecasting of an unusual dust event over Western India by the Air Quality Early Warning System”, Atmospheric Environment (2023)

  20. Madhusmita Swain, R. Nadimpalli, U C Mohanty, and D Niyogi. Urban modification of heavy rainfall: a model case study for Bhubaneswar urban region. Computational Urban Science volume 3, Article number: 2 (2023)

  21. Swain, M., Nadimpalli, R., Das, A.K., Mohanty, U.C. and Niyogi, D., 2023. Urban modification of heavy rainfall: a model case study for Bhubaneswar urban region. Computational Urban Science, 3(1), p.2.

  22. Chinmay Jena , et. al.: “ Evaluating the sensitivity of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) simulations to chemical mechanism in WRF-Chem over Delhi”., Science of the Total Environment, (2023).

  23. Risma Joseph, P. P. Mujumdar, Rajarshi Das Bhowmik, (2022). Reconstruction of Urban Rainfall Measurements to Estimate the Spatiotemporal Variability of Extreme Rainfall. Water, 14(23), 3900. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233900 (2022)

  24. Gaurav Govardhan, et. al.: "Satellite retrieved stubble-burning activities in north-western India in 2021: Contribution to air pollution in Delhi“, Heliyon (2022).

  25. Sreyashi Debnath, et. al.: “Implications of implementing promulgated and prospective emission regulations on air quality and health in India during 2030” AAQR (2022).

  26. Davis S, Pentakota L, Saptarishy N and Mujumdar PP : A Flood Forecasting Framework Coupling a High-Resolution WRF Ensemble With an Urban Hydrologic Model. Front. Earth Sci. 10:883842. doi: 10.3389/feart.2022.883842 (2022)

  27. Sengupta A., G. Govardhan, S. Debnath, C. Jena, A.N. Parde, P. Lonkar, P. Gunwani, Santosh H Kulkarni, S. Nivdange, R Kumar, and S.D. Ghude, “Probing into the wintertime meteorology and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) forecast over Delhi”, Atmospheric Pollution Research, (2022).

  28. S. Nivdange, C. Jena, P. Pawar-Jadhav, G. Govardhan, Santosh H. Kulkarni, P. Lonkar, A. Vispute, N. Dhangar, A. Parde, P. Acharja, V. Kumar, P. Yadav and N. R Karmalkar: Nationwide CoViD-19 lockdown impact on air quality in India, Mausam, 73, 1, 115-128, (2022)

  29. Nadimpalli, Raghu, Shyama Mohanty, Nishant Pathak, Krishna K. Osuri, U. C. Mohanty, and Somoshree Chatterjee. "Understanding the characteristics of rapid intensity changes of Tropical Cyclones over North Indian Ocean." SN Applied Sciences 3, no. 1 (2021): 1-12.

  30. Mohanty, Shyama, Raghu Nadimpalli, U. C. Mohanty, M. Mohapatra, A. Sharma, Ananda K. Das, and S. Sil. "Quasi-operational forecast guidance of extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani over the Bay of Bengal using high-resolution mesoscale models." Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 133, no. 2 (2021): 331-348.

  31. Pawar, P. V., S. D. Ghude, C. Jena, Móring, A., Sutton, M. A., Kulkarni Santosh H., Lal, D. M., Surendran, D., Van Damme, M., Clarisse, L., Coheur, P.-F., Liu, X., Xu, W., Jiang, J., and Adhya, T. K.: Analysis of atmospheric ammonia over South and East Asia based on the MOZART-4 model and its comparison with satellite and surface observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys,. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-63, (2021)

  32. C. Jena, S. D. Ghude, R. Kumar, S. Debnath, G. Govardhan, V. K. Soni, Santosh H. Kulkarni, G. Beig, R. S. Nanjundiah and M. Rajeevan: Performance of high resolution (400 m) PM2.5 forecast over Delhi. Nature Sci Rep, 11, 4104, (2021)

  33. S. D. Ghude, R. K. Karumuri, C. Jena, R. Kulkarni, G.G. Pfister, V. S. Sajjan, P. Pithani, S. Debnath, R. Kumar, B. Upendra, Santosh H. Kulkarni, D.M. Lal, R.J. Vander A, A. S. Mahajan: What is driving the diurnal variation in tropospheric NO2 columns over a cluster of high emission thermal power plants in India?, Atmospheric Environment: X 5, 100058, (2020)

  34. S. D. Ghude, R. Kumar, C. Jena, S. Debnath, R. G. Kulkarni, S. Alessandrini, M. Biswas, Santosh H. Kulkrani, P. Pithani, S. Kelkar, V. Sajjan, D.M. Chate, V.K. Soni, S. Singh, R. S. Nanjundiah and M. Rajeevan: Evaluation of PM2.5 forecast using chemical data assimilation in the WRF-chem model: a new initiative under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) air quality early warning system (AQEWS) for Delhi, Current Science (2020)

  35. Kumar R., Ghude, S. D, M. Biswas, C. Jena, S. Alessandrini, S. Debnath, Santosh Kulkarni, Simone Sperati, Vijay K. Soni, R. S. Nanjundiah, and M. Rajeevan: Enhancing accuracy of air quality and temperature forecasts during paddy crop-residue burning season in Delhi via chemical data assimilation, JGR (Atmosphere), (2020)

  36. Jena, C., Ghude, S. D., Kulkarni, R., Debnath, S., Kumar, R., Soni, V. K., Acharja, P., Kulkarni Santosh H., Khare, M., Kaginalkar, A. J., Chate, D. M., Ali, K., Nanjundiah, R. S., and Rajeevan, M. N.: Evaluating the sensitivity of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) simulations to chemical mechanism in Delhi, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., (2020)
Conference Publications:
  1. Arun K. Dwivedi, Sumita Kedia, Sagar Pokale, Palash Sinha, Akshara Kaginalkar, Manoj K. Khare, U.C. Mohanty, Sahidul Islam, Assessment of WRF Model in Predicting Heavy Rainfall Events over Complex Topographical Urban City Pune, submitted to International Conference on Urban Climate (ICUC-11), during 28 Aug-1 Sept 2023.

  2. Sumita Kedia, A. K. Dwivedi, S. Pokale, S. Islam, A. Kaginalkar, P. Sinha, S. Ghvhale, R. Nadimpalli, U. C. Mohanty, D. Niyogi, M. Khare, Impact of land use information on heavy rainfall event forecast using an urban scale model, accepted and presented during AMS annual meeting 2023.

  3. Dev Niyogi, Pallavi Gavali, Mohamed Niyaz J, Srujan Gavhale, Arun Dwivedi, Sumita K, Sagar Pokale, Gouri Kadam, Sahidul Islam, Akshara Kaginalkar, Praddep Mumdar. Abinav Wadhawa, Likhitha P.: Coupled Meteorology and Hydrology Modelling to Forecast Flood Extreme Events: Case Study of Pune, India. AGU Fall meeting 2022 meet, at Chicago 12 -16 Dec 2022, Advances in modeling hydrological extremes and engineering practices.

  4. Gouri Kadam, M. Niyaz, P. G. Gavali, S. Gavhale, L. Pentakota, S. Kedia, S. Islam, A. K. Dwivedi, S. Pokale, A. Kaginalkar, P. Mujumdar, M. Khare, and D. Niyogi: Multi-Model Hydrology for Urban Flood Early Warning for Pune, India . 103rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Denver, USA. (37th Conference on Hydrology).

  5. Pallavi Gavali, Srujan Gavhale, Mohamed Niyaz, Sahidul Islam, Sumita kedia, Sagar Pokale, Arun Dwivedi, Gouri Kadam, Akshara Kaginalkar, Manoj Khare, and Abhinav WadhwaIntegrated Reservoir Operations using coupled Hydro-Met Multi-Model system for flood forecasting and mitigations for Pune, India, submitted to EGU general Assembly 2023, 23-28 April 2023

  6. Lead talk by Dr. Sumita Kedia and Dr. Yogesh Kumar Singh on "C-DAC’s Innovative Technological Development for Societal Applications to Adress Weather/Climate Hazards ".

  7. International Conference on “Sustainable Agricultural Development with Climate Smart Systems” (SADCSS-2024) , S’O’A (Deemed to be University) Bhubaneswar, India during July 18-20, 2024. Organized by Centre for Climate Smart Agriculture and Faculty of Agricultural Sciences

  8. Sahidul Islam et al., A high-resolution heat wave forecasting system over urban region in India, International Conference on “Sustainable Agricultural Development with Climate Smart Systems” (SADCSS-2024) , S’O’A (Deemed to be University) Bhubaneswar, India during July 18-20, 2024. Organized by Centre for Climate Smart Agriculture and Faculty of Agricultural Sciences

  9. Manoj Khare et al, GIS and Remote Sensing for Smart Agriculture, International Conference on “Sustainable Agricultural Development with Climate Smart Systems” (SADCSS-2024) , S’O’A (Deemed to be University) Bhubaneswar, India during July 18-20, 2024. Organized by Centre for Climate Smart Agriculture and Faculty of Agricultural Sciences

  10. Palash Sinha et al, Assessing WRF model performance in simulating heatwave over India, International Conference on “Sustainable Agricultural Development with Climate Smart Systems” (SADCSS-2024) , S’O’A (Deemed to be University) Bhubaneswar, India during July 18-20, 2024. Organized by Centre for Climate Smart Agriculture and Faculty of Agricultural Sciences

  11. Key note lecture by Manoj Khare on Key Note Speakers on Climate change, climate variability and adaptation strategies, International Conference on “Sustainable Agricultural Development with Climate Smart Systems” (SADCSS-2024) , S’O’A (Deemed to be University) Bhubaneswar, India during July 18-20, 2024. Organized by Centre for Climate Smart Agriculture and Faculty of Agricultural Sciences

  12. Nagaraju Gaddam, Abhinav Wadhwa, Likhitha P, Pradeep P Mujumdar, “WRF- SWMM Coupled Model Performance Assessment with LCZ Classifications”, AGU Fall Meeting 2022, held in Chicago in 2022.

  13. Likhitha P, Abhinav Wadhwa, Shubha Avinash, Nagaraju Gaddam, “Low Impact Development (LID) as Flood Control Alternatives for Rapidly Changing Urban Landscape”, AGU Fall Meeting 2022, held in Chicago in 2022.